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Newsletter:  October 2003/ Issue 5
An Agenda for A Safer World:  FRAEC Event Highlights WMD Challenge

by Kirea Jebali, PNWCGS Staff

On May 1st 2003, the Foundation for Russian American Economic Cooperation (FRAEC), a strategic partner of the Pacific Northwest Center for Global Security (PNWCGS), sponsored a dinner in Seattle with keynote speaker, Laura Holgate, to discuss collaboration between the Russian Federation and the United States to reduce the threat of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. The event was attended by FRAEC members and supporters interested in issues of global security.

The Foundation for Russian American Economic Cooperation is a nonprofit organization founded in 1989 to foster expanded economic ties between Russia and the United States. FRAEC’s efforts also include cooperation with Russia in the areas of economic development, civil society and social services.

Holgate’s speech. “An Agenda for A Safer World,” addressed the challenges posed by the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), offering insight and recommendations. Holgate has been with the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) since 2001 and is vice president of the Newly Independent States/Russia programs.

Holgate explained that NTI was founded on the idea that WMDs pose the greatest danger to the world today, terrorists are the most likely to use WMDs, and preventing the proliferation and use of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons should be the primary security focus of the 21st Century.

The fall of the Soviet Union, which created a vulnerable supply of WMDs and WMD-knowledge; the rise in demand for WMDs on the part of terrorist organizations; and the acceleration of science and technology, have all combined to create a new and accelerated arms race in which “terrorists are racing to acquire nuclear, biological and chemical weapons” necessitating a counter response.

As recounted by Holgate, the most stunning aspect of an October 2001 security alert that terrorists were attempting to smuggle a 10-kiloton nuclear bomb into New York was not the fact that the alert was cancelled on the grounds of flawed intelligence, but that nobody ever considered the report to be implausible.

Holgate said that while countering the innumerable scenarios in which groups might acquire WMDs is difficult, it is not impossible.

“How difficult is it for terrorists to attack us with a nuclear weapon?” she asked the audience. “That depends on how difficult we make it.”

Holgate explained that the least expensive and most effective method of promoting nonproliferation was to secure WMDs themselves, as well as the materials necessary to construct them, especially fissile materials.

Scientists at PNNL are working to do just that through a range of activities such as the Materials Protection, Control, and Accounting program.
“Even small improvements in security can make a big difference in our future,” she said, sharing statistics from Warren Buffet, an American investor who funds NTI’s work.

According to Buffet a ten percent chance of a WMD attack per year over ten years makes the likelihood of such an attack—95.5 percent—a near certainty. Reducing the likelihood to a one percent chance per year over the same period would decrease the likelihood to 39.5 percent.

To date, there have been several accomplish-ments in reducing the proliferation of WMDs, particularly through cooperation between the United States, Russia and other Newly Independent States: half of the former Soviet Union’s strategic nuclear arsenal has been destroyed; Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus have foregone their nuclear forces; and more than 100 tons of nuclear weapons material have been secured. Yet, there is much still to be done. For instance, there are approximately 100 research reactors and facilities in 40 countries throughout the world that produce highly enriched uranium; there are hundreds of tons of unsecured weapons-grade fissile material in Russia’s network of nuclear facilities; and there are over 20,000 nuclear warheads in Russian weapons storage sites.

“Today’s reality is that we cannot reduce risks with only a series of national plans—though these are essential. We must develop a truly global approach in which any nation with weapons or materials must secure them, or ask for help if they need it, and offer help to those in need,” Holgate stated, expressing her belief in the global responsibility to participate in the nonproliferation struggle.

FRAEC: http://www.fraec.org