home << newsletters << October 2003 index << Micro and Macro Analysis of International Conflicts
 

Newsletter:  October 2003/ Issue 5
Micro and Macro Analysis of International Conflicts:  Case Studies of Afghanistan, Iraq and Cyprus

by Kirea Jebali, PNWCGS Staff

On July 8, 2003, Professor Birol Yeşilada, Executive Director of Portland State University’s Northwest American Turkish Research Institute, conducted a seminar for the benefit of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) staff on the subject of conflict analysis. During the seminar, Yeşilada, who has served as a policy consultant to the Central Intelligence Agency, Department of State, RAND Corporation and World Bank, shared new theories and methods of decision-modeling developed over the last few decades. He discussed the application of these approaches to case studies of Afghanistan, Iraq and Cyprus.

During the seminar, Dr. Yeşilada discussed power transition theory, power being defined as the ability to influence others to act in accordance with one’s will and being able to project this influence. The macro theory, used both regionally and internationally, takes the following into consideration: international hierarchies; relative power; the degree of satisfaction with international regimes; the dynamics of economic growth; and a nation’s political capacity (the ability to extract resources and mobilize citizens). These factors are relative, non-static and must be evaluated in relation to one another as well as other related issues. For example, India’s per capita productivity will likely continue to rise steadily; China’s economy will probably surpass that of the United States by 2050. As economic dynamics are an important factor of relative power in power transition theory, both developments have implications for the balance of global power.

The degree of satisfaction with the status quo of countries lower in a hierarchy also help determine whether a peaceful shifts in power will occur.

“China is constantly showing dissatisfaction with the ‘rules of the game’,” said Yeşilada, explaining that the reigning trade, monetary, developmental and security regimes were created without China’s inclusion. “Whoever dominates the Chinese market is most likely to re-write the these rules,” he added.

The relationship between economic growth—which is affected by population growth—and national capacity is also an important factor. For instance, the oil wealthy countries of the Middle East, long reliant on single commodity export markets, will face great challenges in the years ahead as their populations increase relative to national capacity, and oil from the Caspian Sea region hits the global market.

The seminar also included discussion of regional integration theory, which looks at how regional integration and shifts in relations are likely to take place. Discussion highlighted the number of non-cooperative players currently in the Middle East, Caspian Region, and South and Central Asia, and the consequent threat to peace. For instance, Iran, which recently tested a new missile, is a discontented player hemmed in by Israel on the regional level and by the U.S. on the international level.

“When (military) parity is reached (in such a scenario) the potential for war increases,” Yeşilada said, explaining that a discontented nation with equal power to inflict damage has a greater incentive to push for change.

The use of decision-modeling software that combines bounded rationality, game theory and expectations utility provided a method to apply these theories on a micro level. This approach uses data that is very time sensitive and poses the challenge of assigning quantitative value to factors such as power. The computer modeling technique, also used by the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and Department of Defense, has been tested on approximately 2,000 historical and contemporary cases for the purpose of military, economic and political analyses, and has a success rate of 90 percent in predicting actual bargaining scenarios.

The process takes six steps: frame the problem at hand; the main issues of concern of all participants; gather and measure data; analyze the interests, positions and potential bargaining trade-offs of the participants; interpret the findings; and identify potential bargaining scenarios. A limitation of the model is that it assumes the availability of full information.

Power transition theory combines macro theory and peer analysis to identify areas of conflict, power parities, economic dynamics and levels of satisfaction of participants The microanalysis is then conducted to identify issues and interests of participants, as well as bargaining opportunities.

The Afghan case study concluded that U.S. efforts in maintaining stability in Afghanistan are crucial, and that without the U.S. it is possible that the Taliban will resurface. Some other findings of the full microanalyses concluded that Iraq was never a danger to the United States because to take action against the U.S. would have been “suicidal.” However, if Iraq were to have acquired nuclear weapons it would have posed a serious threat to Israel. The model also found that the potential for political stability in post-Sadaam Iraq is extremely low. It indicated there is an increased threat to the United States in the future if trans-Atlantic alliances are not mended because rivalry between the United States and European Union would only make it easier for a third power, such as China, to challenge the international power regime. Lastly, the results indicated that UN Secretary General Kofi Anan’s plan for peace is the best solution for Cyprus. While the present Turkish president, his party and the military in Ankara do not like the plan, it is supported by other Turks and could well be the last opportunity to resolve the 40-year old conflict.

“This is not a substitute for policy analysis, but an additional tool,” Yeşilada said of the combined approach, adding that while most analysts like the combined model, traditionalists “hate it” and that one half of the current U.S. administration likes it and the other half does not.

“Some of the results are just not what people want to hear,” he said.