home << newsletters << October 2003 index << Study Explores Threat to Puget Sound/Georgia Basin
 

Newsletter:  October 2003/ Issue 5
Study Explores Threat to Puget Sound/Georgia Basin Environmental Security

by Kirea Jebali, PNWCGS Staff

This spring researchers at PNNL studied environmental security in the Puget Sound/Georgia Basin. The purpose of this analysis, conducted by research scientists Ann Lesperance, Kathleen Judd and Nancy Peterson of PNNL’s National Security Division, was to determine whether the environmental challenges of the Puget Sound/Georgia Basin region and increasing demands upon the ecosystem may create a threat to U.S.-Canada relations and, thus, a threat to regional stability.

The concept of environmental security has been gaining momentum over the past decade as attention is paid to the connection between environmental issues and security by policy makers, military leaders, and academics. The study of environmental security in this region stemmed partly from a course on ecosystem management─Puget Sound /Georgia Basin: Managing an International Ecosystem─taught by Lesperance and colleagues from the University of British Columbia and Western Washington University.

For the purpose of the study, environmental security was defined as “relative safety from political, economic and societal upheaval as a result of environmental change, be it slow or rapid, both within national and across national borders.”

The primary questions of the study were whether environmental issues could impact regional cooperation or stability, and if there were mechanisms in place for transboundary dispute resolution or cooperation.

Researchers employed a “scale of conflict,” developed by E.E. Azar and adapted by S.B. Yoffee and K.L. Larson for conflict analysis in international water basins, to aid in characterizing past and present U.S.-Canada diplomatic interactions over the environment. Issues ranging from the 1964 Columbia River Treaty and 1995 Marine Spill Prevention Cooperative Agreement, to the 1997 Salmon Wars and current controversy over the status of Lake Roosevelt as a Superfund cleanup site were rated on a numerical scale (-7 to 7) with –7 being a formal declaration of ware and +7 being a voluntary national unification.

“We plotted several transboundary regional events using the scale and found that a relatively balanced situation with events clustered toward the middle of the conflict scale,” explained Lesperance.

As largely expected, the analysis confirmed that the threat to Northwest stability over environmental issues is relatively low. U.S.-Canada relations are predominantly cooperative in the area of environmental management. But, the research yielded some potentially useful results for Canadian and U.S. policy makers.

For example, while current mechanisms for cooperation seem to be effective at addressing many environmental issues, there is a need to develop a common vision for addressing long-term issues such as global warming.

“Climate change is gaining increased attention, yet dialogue on the topic is in its infancy in this region and no long-term planning between the U.S. and Canada is occurring,” said Lesperance. In addition, those interviewed in the U.S. and Canada for the study cited air quality, water quantity and species at risk as the most likely sources of future tensions.

Water scarcity is anticipated to be one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century, and is expected to be a major problem for western North America. Canada has over 300 boundary water basins that cross or form the U.S.-Canada border, suggesting that the two countries will have to arrive at some sort of long-term comprehensive vision for water management. “The water issue was surprising in its intensity. Water to Canadians is like oil to Texans—it’s part of the fabric of who they are,” said Lesperance. Canada and the U.S. have experienced points of contention concerning water resources in recent years.

Judd also expressed surprise at the extent of conflict already existing over water issues, adding, “The fact is that
there is not really an ongoing dialogue between the U.S. and Canada on the issue in this region—I think the time is ripe.”

According to Judd, looking at the region from a perspective of environmental security provided useful insight.

“We don’t always see the border in this region,” she commented. “We tend to see one (country) as an extension of the other. However, when we look at the events of the past we see that we are both very nationalistic and that points of conflict and expressions of tension arise as a result of trans border issues.”