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Newsletter:  Fall 2004/ Issue 6
Conferees Gather to Discuss "Nuclear Asia"

by Heidi Mahy and Joseph Ferguson

Asia’s unprecedented rates of economic and population growth, rapid expansion of commercial nuclear power plant construction, entrenchment of terror networks, and lack of a solid force to advocate regional solutions to nuclear security risks facing the Asia-Pacific make it a region of particular concern. All of these factors, when considered against the backdrop of revelations about A.Q. Khan’s nuclear cartel, make clear the urgency for a coordinated and forward- thinking strategy to enhance regional stability in Asia and to augment regional and international nonproliferation efforts.

To initiate a dialogue on these issues, the Pacific Northwest Center for Global Security (PNWCGS) and the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) co-sponsored a "Nuclear Asia" conference with the U.S. Army War College, Central Intelligence Agency, U.S. Department of Energy, Nuclear Threat Initiative, and the Ploughshares Fund. Distinguished speakers and panelists from the U.S. and Asia were among the 75 conference participants from government, academia, and non-profit research institutions, gathered on March 18-19, 2004 at the Talaris Conference Center in Seattle, Washington. The conference was a unique opportunity for policy makers, security analysts, nuclear scientists and engineers, regional experts, and military planners to share perspectives and identify issues requiring new and innovative solutions.

Conference participants affirmed the currently held opinion that Asia, and the rest of the world, must ensure that nuclear materials are adequately safeguarded. As noted by the conference participants, South Asia now constitutes the one place on the globe where nuclear weapons, terrorist groups, state actors involved in proliferation trade, and nuclear adversaries in confrontational postures all intersect. In Northeast Asia, the Korean Peninsula and the nations of Northeast Asia are the locus of a prolonged period of crisis due to the nuclear machinations of North Korea. This creates a worrisome "nexus of terrorism and nuclear-armed adversaries," noted Joseph Ferguson, Director of Northeast Asia Studies at the National Bureau of Asian Research, one of the primary conference organizers.

An important theme of the conference was the challenge posed by the growing demand for nuclear-related "dual-use" technologies in Asia, a region characterized by weapons aspirations, political instability, and regional tensions. Dual- use technologies are technologies can be used for both civilian and military applications. Examples include certain components for nuclear power reactors, high speed computers, and special metals such as Maraging steel. The growing populations and economies of Asia are creating significantly increasing demand for nuclear technologies to generate electricity, provide nuclear medicine, and support the expanding agricultural sector.

Globalization has increased the sale of dual-use technologies and, at the same time, it has fostered a fundamental shift in world power. "World power is accumulating in Asia," said Richard Ellings, President of NBR president. "China, India, and Pakistan all have key roles to play in establishing regional security; their interactions will be vital in creating multilateral security regimes that secure both regional stability and global security."

However, conference speakers highlighted the challenges that must be overcome to achieve constructive interaction. The region’s history has led these countries to have strong views about proliferation and a wariness of multilateral agreements that create "haves" and "have nots." Both India and Pakistan, for example, openly reject the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as an attempt by the nuclear weapons states to undermine their sovereign rights. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have concerns that regional, multilateral solutions may undermine their important bilateral relationships. Consequently, countries in this region tread very lightly and proceed very cautiously when it comes to multilateral commitments.

The shift away from state actors to networks and non-state actors was also identified by many speakers as a fundamental concern. While state actors frequently use diplomatic, economic, or legal channels to influence behaviors, non-state actors (as typified by terrorist groups) are more often inspired by ideology and are less susceptible to international influence. Tom Shea, who recently came to the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to lead the Laboratory’s Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Programs, noted that "we have mechanisms in place to deal with nation states, but not to deal with networks or covert operations."

Dr. Shea’s concerns were widely shared. In his keynote address, Tomihiro Taniguchi, the IAEA Deputy Director General for Nuclear Safety and Security, expressed the need for a new "Global Nuclear Security Regime" and a global commitment to a security culture. Conference papers and panel discussions addressed this issue from many perspectives, emphasizing the heightened urgency for new tools and renewed efforts to build and reinforce a culture of global security through international systems and norms.

In the closing summaries, participants expressed strong support for a follow-on conference to continue the dialogue. A summary of the conference proceedings will be available this fall.